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Business stockpiles and sales both rose in June

WASHINGTON — Businesses added to their stockpiles for an 18th consecutive month in June, but the increase was the smallest in more than a year. Companies may be less confident amid declining consumer demand and growing fears of a recession.

Business inventories rose 0.3 percent in June, the weakest gain since May 2010, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Total business sales rose 0.4 percent after a 0.1 percent drop in May.

The rebound in sales should help to bolster shaky business sentiment and spur further inventory restocking in coming months. A separate report Friday showed that demand at the retail level was up in July, which could help alleviate concerns of a downturn.

Overall economic growth slowed to just 0.8 percent in the first six months of this year, the worst growth since the recession officially ended in June 2009. A drop in inventory rebuilding would further hamper growth and put the country at risk of falling back into a recession.

The June inventory increase pushed total stockpiles to $1.52 trillion, up about 15 percent from the recent low of $1.32 trillion reached in September 2009.

Wholesalers increased their stockpiles 0.6 percent. Manufacturers and retailers both increased their stocks 0.2 percent.

Sales at the wholesale level rose 0.6 percent, retail sales increased 0.3 percent, and manufacturing sales gained 0.2 percent.

Slower inventory restocking would reduce factory orders, if it persisted. Manufacturing has been one of the strongest sectors in this recovery, but it has faltered in recent months.

High energy prices have dampened consumer spending and natural disasters in Japan disrupted supply chains, particularly for auto parts and electronics.

A private trade group reported last week that that manufacturing activity barely grew in July. The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group for purchasing executives, said its index of manufacturing activity fell to 50.9 in July. That was the lowest reading since July 2009 and just barely above the 50 reading that indicates manufacturing is growing and is not in a recession.

Westfield sambas into Brazil shopping

SHOPPING centre owner Westfield Group is making its first new market entry in 11 years, acquiring 50 per cent of Almeida Junior, a Brazilian operation which does much the same as Westfield elsewhere.

Westfield said today it was investing $440 million in Almeida Junior Shopping Centres SA, giving it a position in a “large and high potential market”.

The investment is Westfield’s first new market entry since the company opened its doors in the UK in 2000, Westfield chairman Frank Lowy said in a statement.

“Whilst the climate in the world financial markets is volatile at present, this transaction is in the Group’s long term investment and funding plan, and one we have been investigating for an extensive period of time,” Mr Lowy said.

A new company, Westfield Almeida Junior Shopping Centers SA, would own and operate five shopping centres in southern Brazil, including two currently under development, Westfield said.

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Almeida Junior has been operating shopping centres in Brazil since 1993. Westfield said it was a vertically integrated owner, manager and developer of shopping malls.

“It undertakes all aspects of shopping centre design, development, construction, leasing, marketing, management and ownership along similar lines to (Westfield),” the statement said.

Westfield co-chief executive, Steven Lowy, said the “underlying characteristics of the Brazilian market, combined with a strong and diversified local retailer base and growing consumer spending, makes Brazil a strategic long term growth opportunity” for Westfield.

The valuation of the new company, established by the purchase price, represented an 11.2 times earnings (EBITDA) multiple on first year forecast earnings.

The acquisition extends Westfield’s footprint to a fifth country, after Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the United States.

“The transaction is expected to be earnings positive and is forecast to contribute 0.3 cents to Funds from Operations in 2012,” Westfield said in its statement.

“The accretion is expected to increase further in future years as a result of both the income growth from Westfield Almeida Juniors existing portfolio as well as the anticipated growth in the overall size of the business.”

Small Business Optimism Continues To Decline Amidst Uncertainty

Amidst anemic consumer spending and national uncertainty over the fate of the debt ceiling, small-business optimism declined for the fifth straight month in July, as independent business owners acknowledged that they don’t expect the economy to improve any time soon.

Small-business owners cited “economic conditions” and “political climate” as reasons for their relative pessimism, likely a reference to the gridlock over the federal deficit that consumed Washington in July.

The drop in the Small Business Optimism Index, a monthly report published by the National Federation of Independent Business, mirrors a nationwide atmosphere of trepidation that has also resulted in shrinking consumer confidence and massive sell-offs on Wall Street.

The Index fell 0.9 points in July, dropping to a level of 89.9, according to a release Tuesday from the NFIB. Pessimists outnumbered optimists on a number of scores. There were more small-business owners predicting the economy would be worse six months from now, for example, than those saying it would be better.

Bill Dunkelberg, chief economist at the NFIB, said in a statement that it might be time to “begin referring to the ‘Small-Business Pessimism Index’ from now on.”

On the whole, small-business owners were also more likely to predict their sales would be lower over the next three months, and that it would become harder to get credit. While 10 percent of respondents said they planned to increase their workforce in the next three months, another 11 percent said they planned to eliminate jobs.

The survey results suggested that Main Street feels constrained by its relationship with the government. While “poor sales” were the single most-cited problem in the survey, “taxes” and “government regulations and red tape” came in second and third, respectively.

In addition, when asked about the single most important problem they faced, respondents were twice as likely to name regulation as inflation, insurance, or competition from big business.

Last week, the NFIB launched Small Businesses for Sensible Regulations, an initiative aimed at taking regulatory pressure off independent businesses. The campaign has attracted representatives of businesses in six states.

Other economic factors are contributing to the difficult climate for independent business owners. Weak GDP, sluggish housing and stubbornly high unemployment, as well as market panic following a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Standard Poor’s, have Americans worried that the country could be pointed toward a double-dip recession.

The debt-ceiling negotiations in Washington, which stretched throughout the month of July before resolving with an August 2 deal, had an especially detrimental impact on small-business sentiment.

Caught between a government unable to agree on the best way to expand the economy, and nervous consumers reluctant to make discretionary purchases, small business owners are feeling the squeeze as much as anyone.


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